By Gaurav Arora
The March series Nifty futures is currently trading with a premium of around 155 points. For the Index futures, FII has recently reduced shorts inducing their Net Index Long exposure to 45% which was at 22% at the start of series.
The Index is likely to trade with Positive Bias till 21700 is not breached on a closing basis, for the first fortnight of the Mar series. 21600-700 might be the immediate support and only a decisive close below it might bring in further downside.
VIX for the Nifty is currently at around 16 and likely to remain in the 14 to 18 range implying a range of around 950 points in a month. For the Nifty, the IVs for the options remained around 15 levels in yesterday’s trade.
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For the Nifty, the VWAP (Volume weighted average price) is around 21850 implying that to be the support. Above this, Nifty is to be positively biased for the short term towards 22400-22500.
The ratio between Bank Nifty and Nifty is currently at 2.10, this ratio has a support at 2.03 and resistance near 2.20. We expect Bank Nifty to trade in tandem with Nifty going forward.
Sector-wise, Chemicals and Nifty Private Banks look good in Nifty.
Nifty Call Ratio Spread:-
Buy Nifty 7 Mar 22,200 CE @ 215
Sell Nifty 7 Mar 2 22,500 CE @ 93
Spread @29, Target 80
(Gaurav Arora – Derivatives Analyst, Religare Broking Ltd. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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